Vaikutusvaltainen The Economist -lehti ennustaa eläkejärjestelmän tuhoa. Lehden mukaan OECD-maissa eläkejärjestelmän kustannukset ovat jo noin 7 % BKT:sta. Eläkejärjestelmän kustannusten ennustetaan tuplaantuvan vuoteen 2050 mennessä.
Economist-lehden mukaan ainoa looginen seuraus tästä on, että nykyinen järjestelmä tulee tuhoutumaan omaan mahdottomuuteensa. Lehden mukaan poliitikkojen ja kansalaisten tulisikin aloittaa vääjäämättömään varautuminen:
Can governments make sure this inevitable adjustment goes smoothly? In the recent past some policies have bordered on the demographically insane—for instance “job-creation” schemes that encourage older workers to take early retirement. Many things that make sense anyway, such as making benefits more portable, encouraging immigration, promoting private saving or reforming health care, make even more sense now. Banning mandatory retirement ages in the private sector (as America has done) looks sensible, as does creating conditions in which people can retire more gradually. Above all, the retirement ages for state pensions need to be put back. Recent increases to 67 or 68 are doing no more than compensate for the likely rise in life expectancy: 70 would be a better figure. So far only Denmark has taken the radical step of indexing the pensionable age to life expectancy.
Some of this will be unpopular. Private pensions, which might make up for some of this, last year lost nearly a quarter of their value, a terrifying $5.4 trillion. But as Herb Stein, an economist, pointed out, “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” Better to try to enjoy the consequences.
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It will all work out, sort of
Can governments make sure this inevitable adjustment goes smoothly? In the recent past some policies have bordered on the demographically insane—for instance “job-creation” schemes that encourage older workers to take early retirement. Many things that make sense anyway, such as making benefits more portable, encouraging immigration, promoting private saving or reforming health care (see article), make even more sense now. Banning mandatory retirement ages in the private sector (as America has done) looks sensible, as does creating conditions in which people can retire more gradually. Above all, the retirement ages for state pensions need to be put back. Recent increases to 67 or 68 are doing no more than compensate for the likely rise in life expectancy: 70 would be a better figure. So far only Denmark has taken the radical step of indexing the pensionable age to life expectancy.
Some of this will be unpopular. Private pensions, which might make up for some of this, last year lost nearly a quarter of their value, a terrifying $5.4 trillion. But as Herb Stein, an economist, pointed out, “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” Better to try to enjoy the consequences.